Modelling trade-offs for ecologically responsible nickel supply

Speakers: Dr Jayden Hyman and Associate Professor Evelyn Mervine

Abstract:

The global energy transition is driving unprecedented demand for nickel, a critical input for low‑carbon technologies and stainless steel. Over the past decade, nickel mining has shifted rapidly toward the tropics, where many of the world’s largest known deposits overlap with highly biodiverse and carbon‑rich ecosystems. Expanding mining in these regions poses significant risks to biodiversity conservation and climate objectives.

In this joint seminar, findings are presented from the forthcoming Nature Ecology & Evolution study examining the trade‑offs between meeting future nickel demand for decarbonisation and protecting areas critical for biodiversity and carbon storage. The research was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Project, Ecologically responsible mining to fuel a green energy transition.

Dr Mervine will open the seminar by setting the scene on nickel, covering the geology of laterite and magmatic sulphide deposits, land‑use change emissions from mining, ore processing pathways, and industry dynamics driving shifts toward lower‑cost producers.
Dr Hyman will then present the study’s core results, based on a global, mine‑by‑mine supply scenario model that simulates nickel production from existing mines and known deposits between 2025 and 2050.

Results indicate that around half of future nickel production could come from deposits located within the top 10% of priority areas for terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage, with more than half originating from coastal mines upstream of key marine biodiversity hotspots.
The seminar concludes by exploring how conservation policies—such as terrestrial no‑go areas and a deep‑sea mining moratorium—could shape future nickel supply, highlighting the need to integrate conservation priorities into responsible sourcing and mine development decisions.

Bios:

Dr Jayden Hyman is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the School of the Environment at the University of Queensland. His postdoctoral research explores scenarios of global mine development to identify pathways that minimise impacts on biodiversity while meeting future mineral demand for decarbonisation. Jayden's qualifications include a Bachelor of Civil Engineering (Honours), a Bachelor of Environmental Science, and a PhD from Griffith University, where his doctoral research focused on assessing and managing the potential environmental impacts of deep-sea mining. Prior to his PhD, he spent six years in industry consulting roles, specialising in assessing and monitoring coastal impacts from infrastructure and development projects.

Dr Evelyn Mervine is an Associate Professor in The Sustainable Minerals Institute at The University of Queensland. She leads the Carbon & Climate Change research group within the Centre for Environmental Responsibility in Mining. Prior to joining SMI, Evelyn worked in the mining industry for fourteen years, working on geology and carbon mitigation projects in North America, South America, Africa, and Australia. Evelyn has a bachelor's degree in Earth Sciences from Dartmouth College, an MSc degree in Carbon Management from The University of Edinburgh, and a PhD in Marine Geology which was jointly awarded by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and The Massachusetts Institute of Technology.